The RBA offers the most recent forecast for the Australian economy in its November Statement on Monetary Policy. Over the next two years it expects:
- GDP growth will top out at 2.0% - the forecast for 2025 has been revised upward from 1.7% to 2.0%, while the forecast for 2026 has been slightly lowered from 2.1% to 1.9%. The estimate for 2027 remains unchanged at 2.0%. The downward adjustment in the medium-term outlook reflects weaker expectations for household consumption and public sector demand.
- Household consumption growth is projected to hold steady at 2.1% through late 2025 and mid-2026, before edging up to 2.3% by year-end. It is then forecast to stabilise around 2.1% throughout 2027.
- Business investment will remain weak, starting at 0.1% in late 2025, then gradually improving to 2.6% by the end of 2027, while dwelling investment will continue to decline from 4.8% in 2025 to 3.1% by the end of 2026.
- The unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.2% in mid-2025 to 4.4% by late 2025 and remain at that level through 2027, consistent with the full-employment range of 4–5%.
- Headline inflation will increase to 3.7% by mid-2026 before easing to 2.6% by late 2027 due to the expiry of energy subsidies. Trimmed mean inflation will rise above the target band before returning to 2.6% in 2027.
- Wages growth will decline from 3.4% to 3.0% at the end of 2027 as the labour market progressively weakens from record levels of tightness.
- The RBA’s assumption for productivity growth has been lowered from 1.0% to 0.7% p.a. This now sets an upper limit of around 2.0% p.a. growth for the economy as a whole.
RBA forecasts for the Australian economy (November 2025)
| % change over the year |
Jun 2025 |
Dec 2025 |
Jun 2026 |
Dec 2026 |
Jun 2027 |
Dec 2027 |
| Gross domestic product (GDP) |
1.8 |
2 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2 |
2 |
| Household consumption |
2 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
| Dwelling investment |
4.8 |
4.8 |
3.7 |
3.1 |
2.7 |
2.5 |
| Business investment |
0.2 |
0.1 |
1 |
2 |
2.5 |
2.6 |
| Public demand |
3 |
2.1 |
3.6 |
3.2 |
3.1 |
2.4 |
| Gross national expenditure |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.5 |
2.7 |
2.5 |
2.3 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Imports |
1.9 |
3.1 |
4 |
4.5 |
3.8 |
2.9 |
| Exports |
1.5 |
2.1 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
| Terms of trade |
−2.4 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
−1 |
−0.3 |
0 |
| Real household disposable income |
4.1 |
2.2 |
2 |
2.5 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Unemployment rate (qtr average, %) |
4.2 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
| Employment |
2.2 |
1.3 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
| Average wage rates (WPI) |
3.4 |
3.4 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Trimmed mean inflation (CPI) |
2.7 |
3.2 |
3.2 |
2.7 |
2.6 |
2.6 |
| Headline inflation (CPI) |
2.1 |
3.3 |
3.7 |
3.2 |
2.7 |
2.6 |
