The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) offers most recent forecast for the global economy in its September Economic Outlook Interim Report. Over the next two years it expects:
- Global growth is projected to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026. The projection for 2025 is improved by 0.3% from June economic outlook. This projection reflects stronger-than-expected growth, especially in emerging markets, and early trade activity ahead of tariff hikes.
- GDP growth in Australia is expected to rebound to 1.8% in 2025, rising slightly to 2.2% in 2026 after a sluggish period. Australia may not be directly affected by U.S. tariff shifts, but it remains exposed to risks from a projected slowdown in China, especially through falling commodity prices.
- Headline inflation is expected to ease across most G20 countries as growth slows and labour market pressures lessen, with headline inflation falling to 2.9% by 2026 and core inflation in advanced economies staying near 2.5%. In the U.S., rising tariff rates are expected to push inflation higher, as firms pass more costs onto consumers. Consequently, inflation is projected to stay above target through 2026.
- Australia’s headline inflation is projected to fall from 3.2% to 2.5% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026. Since September 2024, headline inflation has returned to the 2–3% target range, with core inflation also now within target but slightly higher. Policy rates are expected to ease gradually, while a declining job vacancy-to-unemployed ratio point to weakening labour demand.
OECD Economic Outlook Interim Report, selected countries (September 2025)
| |
|
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
| Real GDP growth, % |
World |
3.3 |
3.2 |
2.9 |
| |
G20 |
3.4 |
3.2 |
2.9 |
| |
United States |
2.8 |
1.8 |
1.5 |
| |
Euro Area |
0.8 |
1.2 |
1 |
| |
China |
5 |
4.9 |
4.4 |
| |
Australia |
1.1 |
1.8 |
2.2 |
| Headline Inflation, % |
G20 |
6.2 |
3.4 |
2.9 |
| |
United States |
2.5 |
2.7 |
3 |
| |
Euro Area |
2.4 |
2.1 |
1.9 |
| |
China |
0.2 |
-0.2 |
0.3 |
| |
Australia |
3.2 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
