The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) offer most recent forecast for the global economy in its September Economic Outlook Interim Report. OECD expects the following over the next two years:
- Global growth is expected to decline from 3.4% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026 before picking up 3.0% in 2027. US GDP growth is projected at 2.2% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, with strong AI-driven investment moderating the effects of weaker consumer spending and slower real income growth. China's growth is expected to slow to 4.5% in 2026 and 4.2% in 2027.
- Australia’s GDP growth is forecast to slow to 1.9% in 2026 and 1.7% in 2027. While recent economic activity remains supported by investment in data centre infrastructure and technology equipment, which boosted real GDP growth in the second quarter, weaker domestic demand and ongoing global uncertainties are expected to weigh on growth in the coming years.
- Headline inflation across G20 countries is projected to increase from 3.4% in 2025 to 4.1% in 2026, reflecting higher commodity prices, before gradually easing to 3.6% in 2027 as moderating energy prices and tighter monetary policy reduce broader inflationary pressures. Core inflation across advanced economies is projected to moderate further, declining from 2.7% in 2026 to 2.5% in 2027. Since March, around one-third of central banks have raised policy rates, generally by small margins, while many others that had been pursuing a series of rate cuts have kept rates unchanged in recent months.
- Australia’s headline inflation is projected to rise to 4.5% in 2026, driven by higher energy prices, before easing to around 2.8% in 2027 as these pressures dissipate. While inflation is anticipated to return closer to the RBA’s target range over the medium term, risks remain that higher energy and input costs could spill over into broader prices. In response, further modest increases in interest rates are expected in the near term to help contain inflation expectations.
OECD Economic Outlook, selected countries (September 2026)
| |
|
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
| Real GDP growth, % |
World |
3.4 |
2.9 |
3.0 |
| G20 |
3.3 |
3.1 |
3.0 |
| United States |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
| China |
5.0 |
4.5 |
4.2 |
| Australia |
2.0 |
1.9 |
1.7 |
| Headline inflation, % |
G20 |
3.4 |
4.1 |
3.6 |
| United States |
2.6 |
3.6 |
2.6 |
| China |
-0.1 |
1.4 |
1.9 |
| Australia |
2.8 |
4.5 |
2.8 |
