The International Monetary Fund (IMF) offers most recent forecast update for the global economy in its January World Economic Outlook. Over the next two years it expects:
- Global GDP growth forecast: World GDP growth is projected at 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. The outlook has improved slightly compared with the previous forecast, supported by robust tech investment, fiscal and monetary policies, favourable financial conditions, and the private sector’s ability to adjust despite evolving trade policies.
- OECD economies: Growth in advanced economies is expected to reach 1.8% in 2026 and 1.7% in 2027. U.S. growth is set to rise to 2.4% in 2026 before easing to 2.0% in 2027, while the euro area is expected to slow to 1.3% in 2026 and edge up to 1.4% in 2027.
- Global headline inflation is projected to ease to 3.8% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. Inflation forecasts remain largely unchanged from October, with U.S. inflation expected to return to target more slowly than in other major economies.
- Australia’s economy is forecast to grow by 2.1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. Inflation in Australia is expected to remain above the target range for an extended period, reflecting continued persistence. Restoring business confidence in this period of uncertainty will require rebuilding sustainable fiscal buffers, safeguarding stability, and advancing structural reforms.
IMF Economic Outlook, selected countries (January 2026)
| |
|
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
| Real GDP growth, % |
World |
3.3 |
3.3 |
3.2 |
| Advanced economies |
1.7 |
1.8 |
1.7 |
| Emerging market and developing economies |
4.4 |
4.2 |
4.1 |
| Australia |
1.9 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
| United States |
2.1 |
2.4 |
2 |
| Euro area |
1.4 |
1.3 |
1.4 |
| China |
5 |
4.5 |
4 |
| Commodity prices, % |
Oil |
-14.2 |
-8.5 |
0.1 |
| Nonfuel |
9.4 |
7.5 |
0.9 |
| Consumer prices, % |
World |
4.1 |
3.8 |
3.4 |
| Advanced economies |
2.5 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
| Emerging market and developing economies |
5.2 |
4.8 |
4.3 |
